It is being indicated that HTML5 will have a minor impact on the apps ecosystem. According to Strategy Analytics, HTML5 is not a threat to native app dominance as it is failing to present an alternative to native apps, ensuring the continued dominance of Apple, Google, and increasingly Windows Phone.
According to the Strategy Analytics Apps Ecosystem Opportunities report, “HTML5: No Threat to Native App Dominance”, the feature-rich superiority of native apps and the risk HTML5’s open standards creates for existing revenue streams will confine HTML5 to niche status.
The firm says facing business, technical, and revenue challenges HTML5 apps will never gain mainstream popularity. However, a third type of app might bridge HTML5 and native apps in an effective way to keep the app ecosystem engine revved while increasing developer support across platforms.
“HTML5 is not the future of apps,” said Josh Martin, director of apps research at Strategy Analytics.
“While developers dream of `write once run everywhere’, the fragmented support for and limited APIs within HTML5 make this impossible. In fact, Strategy Analytics predicts that the hybrid app is the future. Existing business models are protected, differentiation among and within ecosystems remains intact, and consumption continues unabated. The end result is the continued dominance of iOS, Android and, increasingly, Windows Phone,” said Martin.
The firm projects that a third type of application, the hybrid, will exhibit strong growth. Already services, such as PhoneGap, Sencha, Brightcove and Marmalade are allowing developers to combine an HTML5 core with native APIs to leverage the best of native and open standards.
As far as the popularity of apps concerned, ABI Research forecasts that the world’s smartphone subscribers will download about 36 billion apps in 2012. The forecast reflects a nearly 6% global increase to the 35 apps downloaded per smartphone subscriber on average in 2011.